Ecosystem Resilience & Regime Shifts

Publications and Presentations:
- CD Buelo, SR Carpenter, ML Pace. 2018. A modeling analysis of spatial statistical indicators of thresholds for algal blooms. Limnology and Oceanography Letters.
- GM Wilkinson, SR Carpenter, JJ Cole, ML Pace, RD Batt, CD Buelo, JT Kurtzweil. 2018. Early warning signals precede cyanobacterial blooms in multiple whole-lake experiments. Ecological Monographs.
- ML Pace, RD Batt, CD Buelo, SR Carpenter, JJ Cole, JT Kurtzweil, GM Wilkinson. 2017. Reversal of a cyanobacterial bloom in response to early warnings. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Algal Blooms

Publications and Presentations:
- GM Wilkinson, JA Walter, CD Buelo, ML Pace. 2021. No evidence of widespread algal bloom intensification in hundreds of lakes. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.
- CD Buelo, N Nazemi. Forecasting Algal Blooms. School of Data Science Presidential Fellowship Presentation, May 2020.
- CD Buelo, ML Pace. Algal blooms and ecosystem metabolism in a managed drinking water reservoir. Univ. of Virginia Global Water Initiative Graduate Water Symposium Presentation, November 2019.
Ecosystem Metabolism

Publications and Presentations:
- ML Pace, CD Buelo, SR Carpenter. 2021. Phytoplankton biomass, dissolved organic matter and temperature drive respiration in whole lake nutrient additions. Limnology and Oceanography.
- P Berg, ML Pace, CD Buelo. 2020. Air-water gas exchange in lakes and reservoirs measured from a moving platform by underwater eddy covariance. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods.
- GM Wilkinson, A Besterman, CD Buelo, J Gephart, ML Pace. 2018. A synthesis of modern organic carbon accumulation rates in coastal and aquatic inland ecosystems. Scientific Reports.
- GM Wilkinson, CD Buelo, JJ Cole, ML Pace. 2016. Exogenously produced CO2 doubles the CO2 efflux from three northern temperate lakes. Geophysical Research Letters.
Data Science
More of an approach to research than a distinct topic, I’m interested in the technical aspects of acquiring data and turning it into useful, actionable information. This interest started as a research technician studying statistical early warning indicators of an experimentally-induced algal bloom. Our study tested if changes in resilience could be detected and acted upon to prevent or reverse the bloom, and depended on collecting and analyzing high-frequency data each day and communicating quickly with the members of our research group. This experience taught me the value of creating tools/software/code that make analyses flexible, easy to do, and reproducible, which allows for quick iteration and sharing of findings.